============================================================================== RACE: Newcastle (AW) ? · 2026-05-19 Sunday Lunch At The Border Minstrel Maiden Stakes (GBB Race) Standard · Flat · AW ============================================================================== Status FINISHED ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1. BIG CIGAR (IRE) (#1) 2yo C · Draw 6 Connections Jockey Oisin Orr Trainer Richard & Peter Fahey Owner M A Scaife Pedigree Sire Havana Grey (GB) Dam Barbanera (GER) Damsire Showcasing Form / ratings Form string — Last run (days) — OFR — RPR – TS — Market prices Best-odds movement 15:41 6.00 (Bet365) 16:02 6.50 (Bet365) 16:20 8.00 (BetMGM) 16:41 7.50 (William Hill) 00:30 8.00 (William Hill) 07:46 7.50 (Bet365) 08:50 6.00 (Bet365) 08:56 5.50 (Bet365) 10:02 6.00 (Spreadex) 10:24 5.50 (Bet365) 10:53 5.00 (Bet365) 11:01 5.50 (Bet365) 11:52 6.00 (Spreadex) 11:54 5.50 (Bet365) 12:01 6.00 (Spreadex) 12:38 5.50 (Bet365) ELO Jockey 1599.3 (4200 runs, 450 wins, 10.7%) Trainer 1637.0 (105 runs, 11 wins, 10.5%) Pedigree & partner analytics Horse @ 6f no data Jockey @ 6f no data Jockey @ Newcastle (AW) 294r 34w 12% A/E 0.77 (negative) Jockey × trainer 25r 2w 8% A/E 0.52 (negative) Trainer @ 6f no data Trainer @ Newcastle (AW) 9r 0w 0% A/E 0.00 (negative) Sire progeny @ 6f no data Sire progeny in Class 4 781r 105w 13% A/E 0.86 (fair) Dam progeny @ 6f no data Dam progeny in Class 4 no data Damsire grand @ 6f no data Damsire grand in Class 4 355r 34w 10% A/E 0.75 (negative) Past form (last 1 races) Date Course Dist Going Cl Pos SP Btn OR RPR Jockey 2026-05-19 Newcastle (AW 6f Standard Cla 1/7 2/1F won — — Oisin Orr Prominent - led 1f out - soon ridden and edged left - ran on(op 9/2) Comment Prominent - led 1f out - soon ridden and edged left - ran on(op 9/2) Finishing result Position 1 SP 2/1F (3.000) Beaten (L) 0.00 Total beaten 0.00 In-running comment Prominent - led 1f out - soon ridden and edged left - ran on(op 9/2) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 2. CAERULEUS (IRE) (#2) 2yo C · Draw 4 Connections Jockey Paul Mulrennan Trainer John Butler Owner Kevin Quinn Pedigree Sire Blue Point (IRE) Dam Celestial Object (IRE) Damsire Galileo Form / ratings Form string — Last run (days) — OFR — RPR – TS — Market prices Best-odds movement 15:41 17.00 (Bet365) 16:02 19.00 (Bet365) 22:41 17.00 (Bet365) 07:31 15.00 (Bet365) 07:58 13.00 (Bet365) 08:27 11.00 (Bet365) 08:50 10.00 (BetWright) 08:52 9.00 (BetTom) 08:56 8.50 (BetWright) 09:02 8.00 (Bet365) 09:23 8.50 (Spreadex) 09:39 9.50 (Spreadex) 09:43 9.00 (Spreadex) 09:49 9.50 (Spreadex) 09:57 9.00 (Unibet) 10:18 8.50 (Bet365) 11:32 9.00 (Bet365) 11:54 9.50 (Spreadex) 12:01 10.00 (Spreadex) 12:07 9.50 (Spreadex) 13:49 10.00 (Bet365) ELO Jockey 1508.4 (8375 runs, 1024 wins, 12.2%) Trainer 1748.8 (3592 runs, 353 wins, 9.8%) Pedigree & partner analytics Horse @ 6f no data Jockey @ 6f no data Jockey @ Newcastle (AW) 1550r 183w 12% A/E 0.87 (fair) Jockey × trainer 22r 0w 0% A/E 0.00 (negative) Trainer @ 6f no data Trainer @ Newcastle (AW) 165r 19w 12% A/E 0.79 (negative) Sire progeny @ 6f no data Sire progeny in Class 4 535r 96w 18% A/E 0.95 (fair) Dam progeny @ 6f no data Dam progeny in Class 4 no data Damsire grand @ 6f no data Damsire grand in Class 4 4915r 643w 13% A/E 0.88 (fair) Past form (last 1 races) Date Course Dist Going Cl Pos SP Btn OR RPR Jockey 2026-05-19 Newcastle (AW 6f Standard Cla 4/7 12/1 2.00L — — Paul Mulrennan Towards rear - headway and ran green over 1f out - kept on final 110yds - not pace to challenge(op 9/1 tchd 17/2) Comment Towards rear - headway and ran green over 1f out - kept on final 110yds - not pace to challenge(op 9/1 tchd 17/2) Finishing result Position 4 SP 12/1 (13.000) Beaten (L) 2.00 Total beaten 3.50 In-running comment Towards rear - headway and ran green over 1f out - kept on final 110yds - not pace to challenge(op 9/1 tchd 17/2) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 3. CAPILANO (IRE) (#3) 2yo G · Draw 2 Connections Jockey Connor Beasley Trainer Michael Dods Owner Dunham Trading Ltd Pedigree Sire Ten Sovereigns (IRE) Dam Assembly Of Truth (IRE) Damsire Shamardal Form / ratings Form string — Last run (days) — OFR — RPR – TS — Market prices Best-odds movement 15:41 15.00 (Bet365) 16:02 8.00 (Bet365) 16:20 13.00 (BetMGM) 16:41 10.00 (William Hill) 22:41 9.50 (William Hill) 05:10 9.00 (William Hill) 06:21 9.50 (William Hill) 06:40 9.00 (Boyle Sports) 07:31 8.00 (Midnite) 07:52 9.00 (Midnite) 07:58 8.50 (Midnite) 08:10 8.00 (Bet365) 08:17 8.50 (Midnite) 08:33 9.00 (Midnite) 08:50 10.00 (Bet365) 08:52 11.00 (Bet365) 09:10 12.00 (Bet365) 09:16 13.00 (Bet365) 09:23 15.00 (William Hill) 09:29 13.00 (Bet365) 12:17 12.00 (Bet365) 12:21 13.00 (Unibet) 12:31 12.00 (Bet365) 12:38 13.00 (Unibet) 12:44 12.00 (Bet365) 13:56 11.00 (Bet365) 14:26 12.00 (Bet365) ELO Jockey 1649.7 (6435 runs, 683 wins, 10.6%) Trainer 1580.7 (5160 runs, 596 wins, 11.6%) Pedigree & partner analytics Horse @ 6f no data Jockey @ 6f no data Jockey @ Newcastle (AW) 631r 56w 9% A/E 0.73 (negative) Jockey × trainer 2015r 217w 11% A/E 0.79 (negative) Trainer @ 6f no data Trainer @ Newcastle (AW) 691r 65w 9% A/E 0.84 (negative) Sire progeny @ 6f no data Sire progeny in Class 4 143r 18w 13% A/E 0.87 (fair) Dam progeny @ 6f no data Dam progeny in Class 4 no data Damsire grand @ 6f no data Damsire grand in Class 4 2120r 255w 12% A/E 0.81 (negative) Past form (last 1 races) Date Course Dist Going Cl Pos SP Btn OR RPR Jockey 2026-05-19 Newcastle (AW 6f Standard Cla 3/7 7/1 0.50L — — Connor Beasley Took keen hold - prominent - hung left throughout - outpaced 2f out - rallied final 110yds(op 10/1) Comment Took keen hold - prominent - hung left throughout - outpaced 2f out - rallied final 110yds(op 10/1) Finishing result Position 3 SP 7/1 (8.000) Beaten (L) 0.50 Total beaten 1.50 In-running comment Took keen hold - prominent - hung left throughout - outpaced 2f out - rallied final 110yds(op 10/1) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 4. DORIGO (IRE) (#4) 2yo C · Draw 3 Connections Jockey Kevin Stott Trainer Kevin Ryan Owner Mrs J Ryan Pedigree Sire Space Blues (IRE) Dam Arodene (IRE) Damsire Caravaggio Form / ratings Form string — Last run (days) — OFR — RPR – TS — Market prices Best-odds movement 15:41 10.00 (Bet365) 16:02 11.00 (Bet365) 07:31 13.00 (William Hill) 08:50 15.00 (Bet365) 08:52 17.00 (William Hill) 08:56 15.00 (Bet365) 09:06 17.00 (William Hill) 09:23 15.00 (William Hill) 09:29 13.00 (Bet365) 09:43 12.00 (BetTom) 09:49 11.00 (Spreadex) 09:57 12.00 (Spreadex) 10:02 10.00 (Bet365) 10:41 9.50 (Bet365) 10:53 10.00 (Spreadex) 12:07 11.00 (Spreadex) 12:38 9.50 (Bet365) 14:19 9.00 (Bet365) 14:26 10.00 (Bet365) ELO Jockey 1625.9 (5003 runs, 685 wins, 13.7%) Trainer 1642.3 (6760 runs, 878 wins, 13.0%) Pedigree & partner analytics Horse @ 6f no data Jockey @ 6f no data Jockey @ Newcastle (AW) 566r 84w 15% A/E 0.93 (fair) Jockey × trainer 1554r 243w 16% A/E 0.95 (fair) Trainer @ 6f no data Trainer @ Newcastle (AW) 615r 86w 14% A/E 0.93 (fair) Sire progeny @ 6f no data Sire progeny in Class 4 72r 6w 8% A/E 0.57 (negative) Dam progeny @ 6f no data Dam progeny in Class 4 no data Damsire grand @ 6f no data Damsire grand in Class 4 no data Past form (last 1 races) Date Course Dist Going Cl Pos SP Btn OR RPR Jockey 2026-05-19 Newcastle (AW 6f Standard Cla 2/7 9/1 1.00L — — Kevin Stott Led but pestered - headed 1f out - kept on(op 8/1 tchd 7/1) Comment Led but pestered - headed 1f out - kept on(op 8/1 tchd 7/1) Finishing result Position 2 SP 9/1 (10.000) Beaten (L) 1.00 Total beaten 1.00 In-running comment Led but pestered - headed 1f out - kept on(op 8/1 tchd 7/1) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 5. LEHBAB PRINCE (IRE) (#5) 2yo C · Draw 5 Connections Jockey P J McDonald Trainer Andrew Balding Owner Saeed Suhail Pedigree Sire Blue Point (IRE) Dam Nan Yehi (IRE) Damsire Camelot Form / ratings Form string — Last run (days) — OFR — RPR – TS — Market prices Best-odds movement 15:41 3.75 (Bet365) 16:02 4.00 (Bet365) 07:31 4.50 (Unibet) 08:00 4.33 (Bet365) 09:39 4.00 (Bet365) 09:57 4.33 (Bet365) 10:08 4.50 (William Hill) 10:55 4.33 (Bet365) 13:49 4.00 (Bet365) 14:26 4.33 (Betfred) ELO Jockey 1572.7 (7964 runs, 954 wins, 12.0%) Trainer 1672.5 (9623 runs, 1496 wins, 15.5%) Pedigree & partner analytics Horse @ 6f no data Jockey @ 6f no data Jockey @ Newcastle (AW) 1103r 149w 14% A/E 0.91 (fair) Jockey × trainer 301r 61w 20% A/E 1.07 (value) Trainer @ 6f no data Trainer @ Newcastle (AW) 272r 73w 27% A/E 1.19 (value) Sire progeny @ 6f no data Sire progeny in Class 4 535r 96w 18% A/E 0.95 (fair) Dam progeny @ 6f no data Dam progeny in Class 4 no data Damsire grand @ 6f no data Damsire grand in Class 4 129r 14w 11% A/E 0.92 (fair) Past form (last 1 races) Date Course Dist Going Cl Pos SP Btn OR RPR Jockey 2026-05-19 Newcastle (AW 6f Standard Cla 7/7 100/30 1.50L — — P J McDonald Dwelt start - hampered and swerved left soon after start - raced in last - joined main group after 2f - brief headway over 2f out - weakened over 1f out(op 3/1) Comment Dwelt start - hampered and swerved left soon after start - raced in last - joined main group after 2f - brief headway over 2f out - weakened over 1f out(op 3/1) Finishing result Position 7 SP 100/30 (4.330) Beaten (L) 1.50 Total beaten 8.00 In-running comment Dwelt start - hampered and swerved left soon after start - raced in last - joined main group after 2f - brief headway over 2f out - weakened over 1f out(op 3/1) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 6. MARTIAL ORDER (IRE) (#6) 2yo C · Draw 7 Connections Jockey Sam James Trainer K R Burke Owner Forz Europe Ltd Pedigree Sire Kodiac (GB) Dam Beignet (IRE) Damsire Canford Cliffs Form / ratings Form string — Last run (days) — OFR — RPR – TS — Market prices Best-odds movement 15:41 3.50 (Bet365) 16:02 3.75 (Bet365) 03:31 4.00 (Midnite) 07:31 4.33 (Bet365) 08:43 4.50 (Bet365) 08:50 5.00 (William Hill) 08:52 4.50 (Bet365) 09:25 5.00 (William Hill) 09:29 4.50 (Bet365) 10:18 5.00 (William Hill) 11:32 4.50 (Bet365) 12:44 5.00 (Coral) ELO Jockey 1590.8 (4238 runs, 449 wins, 10.6%) Trainer 1675.9 (7008 runs, 1051 wins, 15.0%) Pedigree & partner analytics Horse @ 6f no data Jockey @ 6f no data Jockey @ Newcastle (AW) 704r 54w 8% A/E 0.72 (negative) Jockey × trainer 719r 114w 16% A/E 0.89 (fair) Trainer @ 6f no data Trainer @ Newcastle (AW) 744r 97w 13% A/E 0.83 (negative) Sire progeny @ 6f no data Sire progeny in Class 4 4243r 491w 12% A/E 0.90 (fair) Dam progeny @ 6f no data Dam progeny in Class 4 no data Damsire grand @ 6f no data Damsire grand in Class 4 291r 35w 12% A/E 0.96 (fair) Past form (last 1 races) Date Course Dist Going Cl Pos SP Btn OR RPR Jockey 2026-05-19 Newcastle (AW 6f Standard Cla 6/7 11/2 2.75L — — Sam James Pressed leader - lost second over 1f out - weakened final 110yds(op 4/1) Comment Pressed leader - lost second over 1f out - weakened final 110yds(op 4/1) Finishing result Position 6 SP 11/2 (6.500) Beaten (L) 2.75 Total beaten 6.50 In-running comment Pressed leader - lost second over 1f out - weakened final 110yds(op 4/1) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 7. REAL TROUBLE (IRE) (#7) 2yo G · Draw 1 Connections Jockey Hollie Doyle Trainer Archie Watson Owner Jayar Investments Partner Pedigree Sire Mehmas (IRE) Dam She's Trouble (IRE) Damsire Fracas Form / ratings Form string — Last run (days) — OFR — RPR – TS — Market prices Best-odds movement 15:41 4.00 (Bet365) 16:02 4.33 (Bet365) 16:20 4.00 (Bet365) 05:01 3.75 (Bet365) 05:53 4.00 (Bet365) 06:21 3.75 (Bet365) 06:32 4.00 (William Hill) 08:27 4.33 (William Hill) 08:50 5.00 (William Hill) 09:16 5.50 (William Hill) 09:29 5.00 (Bet365) ELO Jockey 1652.0 (8428 runs, 1112 wins, 13.2%) Trainer 1560.1 (5276 runs, 825 wins, 15.6%) Pedigree & partner analytics Horse @ 6f no data Jockey @ 6f no data Jockey @ Newcastle (AW) 421r 72w 17% A/E 0.96 (fair) Jockey × trainer 1761r 319w 18% A/E 0.94 (fair) Trainer @ 6f no data Trainer @ Newcastle (AW) 331r 64w 19% A/E 1.06 (value) Sire progeny @ 6f no data Sire progeny in Class 4 1191r 144w 12% A/E 0.80 (negative) Dam progeny @ 6f no data Dam progeny in Class 4 no data Damsire grand @ 6f no data Damsire grand in Class 4 no data Past form (last 1 races) Date Course Dist Going Cl Pos SP Btn OR RPR Jockey 2026-05-19 Newcastle (AW 6f Standard Cla 5/7 5/1 0.20L — — Hollie Doyle In touch with leaders - edged left and no extra over 1f out(op 4/1) Comment In touch with leaders - edged left and no extra over 1f out(op 4/1) Finishing result Position 5 SP 5/1 (6.000) Beaten (L) 0.20 Total beaten 3.75 In-running comment In touch with leaders - edged left and no extra over 1f out(op 4/1) ============================================================================== HEAD-TO-HEAD (1 past meetings between today's runners) ============================================================================== 2026-05-19 · Newcastle (AW) · 6f · Class 4 · Standard Sunday Lunch At The Border Minstrel Maiden Stakes (GBB Race) 1 Big Cigar (IRE) won SP 2/1F 2 Dorigo (IRE) 1.00L SP 9/1 3 Capilano (IRE) 0.50L SP 7/1 4 Caeruleus (IRE) 2.00L SP 12/1 5 Real Trouble (IRE) 0.20L SP 5/1 6 Martial Order (IRE) 2.75L SP 11/2 7 Lehbab Prince (IRE) 1.50L SP 100/30 ============================================================================== AI RACE VERDICT ============================================================================== Pace scenario: Newcastle 6f straight on Standard tends to be honestly run by juveniles; no obvious gate speed flagged so a steady, fair-pace contest favouring the more naturally precocious sire-lines (Blue Point, Kodiac, Havana Grey, Mehmas). Narrative: Standard novice 2yo maiden where every runner is a debutant, so the form book offers nothing and we lean on yard, sire and rider quality. Balding's Lehbab Prince and Butler's Caeruleus tick the most boxes — both by Blue Point, both from yards in form with strong Elo. Martial Order (Kodiac, Burke) and Big Cigar (Havana Grey, Fahey 14d hot) head the supporting cast. Dods' Capilano looks the outsider on a cold-stable trip. Recommended: Lehbab Prince Balding yard 14% 14d strike with RTF 61 is the strongest combination here; Blue Point juveniles travel and PJ McDonald is a class rider on this circuit. Alternative: Caeruleus Butler's trainer Elo 1749 is well clear of the field and the yard is hot at 20% 14d strike; Blue Point colt with Galileo damsire offers stamina-plus-speed mix. ============================================================================== Generated 2026-05-29 22:10 UTC · HorseRacingValue.com · race rac_11948040